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HOU 6 / SDP 3
HOUHouston Astros52%
SDPSan Diego Padres48%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterRonel BlancoConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
SDPHome starterRobbie RayConfirmed
HOU52%ML -105
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
SDP48%ML -112

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.7 pts

Model leans HOU at 52.4% against a market implying 53.3% home; I side with San Diego. Ray has 122.7 IP at a 3.08 ERA versus Blanco's 7.36 ERA over just 14.7 IP, a clear starter comparison. Petco's 0.96 park factor plus that gap argues under the 8.0 line, against the model's 9.04.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ronel BlancoHOU starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 betonlineag / U -108 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.587%under
O 3.574%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Robbie RaySDP starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 bovada / U +104 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.559%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-105 / -112HOU / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -116 / U -104
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total