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HOU 2 / SDP 3
HOUHouston Astros47%
SDPSan Diego Padres53%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterPeter LambertConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline53%Model 20260803_auto
SDPHome starterMichael KingConfirmed
HOU47%ML +106
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
SDP53%ML -125

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.4 pts

Model and market both sit near coin-flip (53.1% vs 52.6% implied), so there's no side comparison from the model. The offensive gap favors Houston: 5.7 RPG and .695 OPS against San Diego's 4.4 and .547, and Lambert's 3.06 ERA/1.13 WHIP matches King's 3.45. Slight lean to HOU at +107. Both starters under 3.50 in a 0.962 park argues under the 8.0; the model's 9.11 looks high.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Peter LambertHOU starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -123 draftkings / U +114 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Michael KingSDP starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +138 fanduel / U -155 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+106 / -125HOU / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total