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TOR 4 / SDP 5
TORToronto Blue Jays50%
SDPSan Diego Padres50%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterKevin GausmanConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline50%Model 20260706_auto
SDPHome starterGermán MárquezConfirmed
TOR50%ML -129
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
SDP50%ML +108

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.9 pts

Model sees coin flip, market leans TOR at 53.8%. TOR's .786 OPS vs SDP's .547 is massive; Márquez has 5.02 ERA in limited work (37.7 IP). Gausman (4.32 ERA, 9.14 K/9) is the superior arm. Model total of 9.33 vs market 8.5 feels right given Petco park factor near neutral and Márquez's vulnerability.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kevin GausmanTOR starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 betmgm / U -115 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Germán MárquezSDP starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +134 betonlineag / U -150 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 3.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%over
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-129 / +108TOR / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total