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COL 7 / SDP 8
COLColorado Rockies46%
SDPSan Diego Padres54%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterMichael LorenzenConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
SDPHome starterMichael KingConfirmed
COL46%ML +198
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SDP54%ML -239

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.8 pts

Market has SDP at 63% vs model's 54%, an 8.8pp gap. Lorenzen's 6.53 ERA in Petco is exploitable; King's 3.24 ERA is solid but not ace-level. Model total of 9.26 vs market 8.0 suggests the model sees offensive upside COL doesn't typically provide (4.2 RPG). Market disagrees heavily on side, moderately on total—defer to Pinnacle on moneyline strength, but over has merit given park-adjusted context.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -108 draftkings / U -104 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%under
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Michael KingSDP starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 bovada / U -131 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+198 / -239COL / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-109)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total