MLB / mlb / live
TOR 5 / SDP 3TORToronto Blue Jays44%
SDPSan Diego Padres56%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterShane BieberConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline56%Model 20260706_auto
SDPHome starterJP SearsConfirmed
TOR44%ML +102
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
SDP56%ML -120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Shane BieberTOR starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betmgm / U -152 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
JP SearsSDP starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 betmgm / U +105 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+102 / -120TOR / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -114 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total