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ARI 1 / SDP 4
ARIArizona Diamondbacks57%
SDPSan Diego Padres43%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterZac GallenConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline57%Model 20260706_auto
SDPHome starterGermán MárquezConfirmed
ARI57%ML +101
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
SDP43%ML -120

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.4 pts

Model has ARI at 57% but market is near coin-flip (52% SDP). Márquez's 5.79 ERA in 32.7 IP and Gallen's 6.36 ERA in 92 IP both suggest runs. Petco suppresses slightly (0.96 PF) but not enough to offset weak starters. Model's 9.55 total vs market 9.0 is close; lean over given pitcher quality.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Zac GallenARI starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -147 draftkings / U +128 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Germán MárquezSDP starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 4 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.557%over
O 3.535%over
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+101 / -120ARI / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -114 / U -109
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total