MLB / mlb / live
LAD 1 / SDP 7LADLos Angeles Dodgers51%
SDPSan Diego Padres49%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterRoki SasakiConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline51%Model 20260622_auto
SDPHome starterWalker BuehlerConfirmed
LAD51%ML -150
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
SDP49%ML +125
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Roki SasakiLAD starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 fanduel / U -106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%under
O 3.575%under
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +136 fanduel / U -143 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-150 / +125LAD / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total