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ATL 0 / SDP 1
ATLAtlanta Braves58%
SDPSan Diego Padres42%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterGrant HolmesConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
SDPHome starterMichael KingConfirmed
ATL58%ML -105
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
SDP42%ML -115

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.4 pts

Model likes ATL 58.3% but market is dead even (50.8% home). Model margin of -1.72 suggests ATL by nearly 2 runs yet market sees a coinflip. ATL's 2.2 RPG season average is elite, .789 OPS strong vs SDP's .547 OPS. King's 3.6 ERA slightly better than Holmes' 4.33. Market disagreement flags model overconfidence; lean ATL but downgrade to lean given market skepticism.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.7
Projected total9.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Grant HolmesATL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 bovada / U -130 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Michael KingSDP starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betonlineag / U +116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-105 / -115ATL / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.3 (-171)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total