MLB / mlb / live
CIN 2 / SDP 6CINCincinnati Reds42%
SDPSan Diego Padres58%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterAndrew Abbott
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterWalker Buehler
CIN42%ML +115
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
SDP58%ML -136
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.8 pts
Model total is 9.04 vs market 7.5 — a 1.54-run gap in a Petco (PF 0.96) extreme pitcher park. Abbott's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is microscopic sample noise, not signal. Buehler stats are null despite 10 starts; uncertain data quality. Model moneyline 58% vs market 55% is close but total miss is structural. Take under, pass on side.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+115 / -136CIN / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total