MLB / mlb / live
NYM 7 / SDP 3NYMNew York Mets42%
SDPSan Diego Padres58%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterHuascar Brazobán
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterRandy Vásquez
NYM42%ML -110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SDP58%ML -110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.5 pts
Both pitchers show 0.00 ERA but tiny samples (Vásquez 6.0 IP, Brazobán 2.1 IP). Model favors SDP 57.5% vs market's 50-50, but extreme park (0.962) + ace flag + small IP samples make side unreliable. Total: market 7.5, model 8.88 — lean under given Petco and uncertainty.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -110NYM / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total