MLB / mlb / live
PHI 3 / SDP 0PHIPhiladelphia Phillies53%
SDPSan Diego Padres47%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterCristopher Sánchez
Model pickPHI moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterWalker Buehler
PHI53%ML -143
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
SDP47%ML +120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap3.3 pts
Model and market align on PHI slight comparison (53% vs 61% implied). Sánchez's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is a microscopic sample, not predictive. Buehler's missing rate stats raise data quality concerns despite 'full' tag. Total gap (9.30 model vs 7.0 market) is massive but likely reflects stale pitcher data; can't trust either side without real Buehler numbers.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-143 / +120PHI / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -106 / U -114
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total