MLB / mlb / live
OAK 5 / SDP 2OAKOakland Athletics52%
SDPSan Diego Padres48%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedOAKAway starterLuis Medina
Model pickOAK moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterMichael King
OAK52%ML +147
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
SDP48%ML -177
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.5 pts
Model picking OAK (52%) is badly wrong. Market has SDP at 61% implied, and reasonably: King's 10.8 K/9 with 0.00 ERA in 50 IP is elite, Petco suppresses runs (0.96 PF), and OAK's 0.512 OPS is weak. Model total of 9.06 vs market 7.5 is a 1.5-run structural miss in an ace-park setup. Medina's 27 K/9 in 0.1 IP is meaningless noise.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+147 / -177OAK / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -111
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total