MLB / mlb / live
OAK 5 / SDP 2OAKOakland Athletics52%
SDPSan Diego Padres48%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedOAKAway starterLuis Medina
Model pickOAK moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterMichael King
OAK52%ML +147
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability39%Selected moneyline pick
SDP48%ML -177
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap13.4 pts
Model picking OAK (52%) is badly wrong. Market has SDP at 61% implied, and reasonably: King's 10.8 K/9 with 0.00 ERA in 50 IP is elite, Petco suppresses runs (0.96 PF), and OAK's 0.512 OPS is weak. Model total of 9.06 vs market 7.5 is a 1.5-run structural miss in an ace-park setup. Medina's 27 K/9 in 0.1 IP is meaningless noise.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+147 / -177OAK / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -111
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total