MLB / mlb / live
OAK 3 / SDP 7OAKOakland Athletics55%
SDPSan Diego Padres45%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedOAKAway starterJeffrey Springs
Model pickOAK moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterWalker Buehler
OAK55%ML +107
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
SDP45%ML -126
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.8 pts
Model has OAK 55.2%, market has SDP 54.6% — nearly a coin flip with large disagreement flag. Petco PF 0.962 plus Buehler's null stats (data_quality full but no ERA/IP/K9) suggests incomplete pitcher data despite 10 starts. Springs' 3.38 ERA in only 5.1 IP is tiny sample. Market total 8.0 vs model 9.07 argues under in pitcher park.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+107 / -126OAK / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total