MLB / mlb / live
OAK 3 / SDP 7OAKOakland Athletics55%
SDPSan Diego Padres45%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedOAKAway starterJeffrey Springs
Model pickOAK moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterWalker Buehler
OAK55%ML +107
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
SDP45%ML -126
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.9 pts
Model has OAK 55.2%, market has SDP 54.6% — nearly a coin flip with large disagreement flag. Petco PF 0.962 plus Buehler's null stats (data_quality full but no ERA/IP/K9) suggests incomplete pitcher data despite 10 starts. Springs' 3.38 ERA in only 5.1 IP is tiny sample. Market total 8.0 vs model 9.07 argues under in pitcher park.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+107 / -126OAK / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total