MLB / mlb / live
LAD 4 / SDP 0LADLos Angeles Dodgers42%
SDPSan Diego Padres58%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterShohei Ohtani
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterRandy Vásquez
LAD42%ML -196
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability36%Selected moneyline pick
SDP58%ML +163
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap21.1 pts
Model has SDP 57.5% vs market's 39.3%—an 18-point gap. Ohtani's pitching stats are null (likely two-way player designation issue), making SP data unreliable. LAD's 5.2 RPG and .743 OPS vs SDP's 3.7/0.547 offense is substantial. Model picking weaker offense/record triggers mismatch flag. Market knows something structural here; fade the model.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-196 / +163LAD / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total