MLB / mlb / live
LAD 4 / SDP 0LADLos Angeles Dodgers42%
SDPSan Diego Padres58%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterShohei Ohtani
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterRandy Vásquez
LAD42%ML -196
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SDP58%ML +163
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time18.2 pts
Model has SDP 57.5% vs market's 39.3%—an 18-point gap. Ohtani's pitching stats are null (likely two-way player designation issue), making SP data unreliable. LAD's 5.2 RPG and .743 OPS vs SDP's 3.7/0.547 offense is substantial. Model picking weaker offense/record triggers mismatch flag. Market knows something structural here; fade the model.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-196 / +163LAD / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total