MLB / mlb / live
CHW 3 / SDP 4CHWChicago White Sox42%
SDPSan Diego Padres58%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterAnthony Kay
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterGriffin Canning
CHW42%ML +155
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SDP58%ML -186
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.2 pts
Griffin Canning's data is a fallback (5.0 IP over 10 starts is implausible), making this a structural uncertainty case. Market implies 62.3% SDP vs model's 58.1%; without reliable pitcher stats, I defer to market. Petco's park factor and Kay's full season data (3.86 ERA, 1.5 WHIP) suggest under lean, but the pitcher_data_fallback forces a pass on both moneyline and total.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+155 / -186CHW / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+114)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
30 books28 ML24 run line21 total