MLB / mlb / live
CHW 4 / SDP 0CHWChicago White Sox49%
SDPSan Diego Padres51%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterSean Burke
Model pickSDP moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterMichael King
CHW49%ML +160
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
SDP51%ML -196
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.9 pts
Market at 63.5% vs model 50.6% is a 13pp gap. King's 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP is absurdly small sample but Burke's 6.75 ERA in 4.0 IP is equally noisy. Petco suppresses runs. Market knows something model doesn't; lean SDP but don't trust King's profile yet.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+160 / -196CHW / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+112)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -113 / U -114
31 books29 ML25 run line22 total