MLB / mlb / live
CHW 8 / SDP 2CHWChicago White Sox59%
SDPSan Diego Padres41%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterNoah Schultz
Model pickCHW moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterGermán Márquez
CHW59%ML +125
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
SDP41%ML -150
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap16.1 pts
Model picks CHW at 58.6%, market has 42.3% - large disagreement flag fires. Away pitcher Schultz on fallback data creates structural uncertainty. Model's 9.51 total vs market 8.0 is a 1.5-run miss; Petco's 0.96 PF argues under. CHW's superior .729 OPS vs .547 supports the away pick but confidence must stay lean given pitcher data gap.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+125 / -150CHW / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+141)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -105
31 books29 ML25 run line22 total