MLB / mlb / live
scheduledSTLSt. Louis Cardinals55%
PITPittsburgh Pirates45%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterMatthew LiberatoreProbable
Model pickSTL moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
PITHome starterLake BacharProbable
STL55%ML +100
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
PIT45%ML -118
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K5.1
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.587%
O 3.573%
O 4.556%
O 5.539%
O 6.525%
O 7.515%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Lake BacharPIT starter / home
Projected K2.0
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.558%
O 2.531%
O 3.514%
O 4.55%
O 5.52%
O 6.50%
O 7.50%
O 8.50%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame
Market consensus+100 / -118STL / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-196)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -107
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total