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STL 0 / PIT 2
STLSt. Louis Cardinals50%
PITPittsburgh Pirates50%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline50%Model 20260921_auto
PITHome starterJared JonesConfirmed
STL50%ML +140
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
PIT50%ML -170

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.3 pts

Model has STL at 50.4% while the market implies 58% for PIT, an 8+ point gap I'd side with the market on. Jones' 10.82 K/9 and 1.19 WHIP at home is a fine profile versus Pallante's 6.2 K/9 contact approach. With PNC listed at a 1.055 park factor and STL's .812 OPS, 7.0 looks low.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andre PallanteSTL starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -149 betonlineag / U +132 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -126 draftkings / U +105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+140 / -170STL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total