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KCR 3 / PIT 4
KCRKansas City Royals42%
PITPittsburgh Pirates58%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterMichael WachaConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline58%Model 20260914_auto
PITHome starterLake BacharConfirmed
KCR42%ML +100
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
PIT58%ML -118

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.9 pts

Market prices PIT at +100 (48.8%) despite an 11-game record comparison and a large offensive gap (.710 OPS vs .518, 4.1 vs 3.2 RPG); model's 57.8% is aggressive but directionally defensible. Wacha's 188.2 IP durability is why KCR is shaded, not their bats. Two sub-3.55 ERA starters plus a punchless KCR lineup argues under 8.5 despite PNC's 1.055 factor.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.3
Market total8.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael WachaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 draftkings / U +117 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Lake BacharPIT starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%under
O 2.557%under
O 3.535%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+100 / -118KCR / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -114
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total