MLB / mlb / live
MIL 5 / PIT 4MILMilwaukee Brewers57%
PITPittsburgh Pirates43%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterLogan HendersonConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline57%Model 20260914_auto
PITHome starterJared JonesConfirmed
MIL57%ML -132
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
PIT43%ML +110
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Logan HendersonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +132 fanduel / U -159 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.524%over
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 betmgm / U +105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-132 / +110MIL / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -104 / U -117
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total