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SFG 12 / PIT 13
SFGSan Francisco Giants37%
PITPittsburgh Pirates63%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterLogan WebbConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline63%Model 20260831_auto
PITHome starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
SFG37%ML +145
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
PIT63%ML -172

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.5 pts

Model (62.5%) and market (60%) agree on PIT, so the side is defensible on Skenes (10.86 K/9, 1.12 WHIP) versus a Webb start that is similarly effective (3.72 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). The 9.02 projected total against a 7.5 line is the clear structural miss: two starters near 3.7 ERA with sub-1.15 WHIPs and PIT scoring 2.7 runs per game do not support that number. Under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Logan WebbSFG starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -175 betmgm / U +138 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%under
O 2.583%under
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Paul SkenesPIT starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+145 / -172SFG / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total