MLB / mlb / live
DET 1 / PIT 4DETDetroit Tigers44%
PITPittsburgh Pirates56%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterKeider MonteroConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline56%Model 20260817_auto
PITHome starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
DET44%ML +133
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
PIT56%ML -153
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Keider MonteroDET starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betonlineag / U +122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -120 betmgm / U +104 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+133 / -153DET / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total