MLB / mlb / live
DET 3 / PIT 4DETDetroit Tigers46%
PITPittsburgh Pirates54%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterJackson JobeConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline54%Model 20260817_auto
PITHome starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
DET46%ML +135
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
PIT54%ML -158
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jackson JobeDET starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +104 betrivers / U -108 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Paul SkenesPIT starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +134 fanduel / U -150 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+135 / -158DET / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total