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BOS 3 / PIT 8
BOSBoston Red Sox43%
PITPittsburgh Pirates57%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterPatrick SandovalConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline57%Model 20260810_auto
PITHome starterLake BacharConfirmed
BOS43%ML -111
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
PIT57%ML -106

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.6 pts

Model has PIT at 56.8% vs market's 48.1% implied — a 9-point gap in favor of the club with the worse record (60-65) and worse offense (4.1 RPG, .710 OPS vs Boston's 5.4 and .736). Sandoval's 30 IP across 10 starts and 1.70 WHIP means early bullpen exposure, and PNC's 1.055 park factor plus Boston's bats nudge me over the 8.5.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Patrick SandovalBOS starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 betonlineag / U -148 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Lake BacharPIT starter / home
Projected K2.6Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -152 betrivers / U +114 betrivers1 book at this line
Model over 2.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.573%over
O 2.549%over
O 3.527%over
O 4.513%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-111 / -106BOS / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total