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BOS 4 / PIT 8
BOSBoston Red Sox58%
PITPittsburgh Pirates42%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterJake BennettConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline58%Model 20260810_auto
PITHome starterBubba ChandlerConfirmed
BOS58%ML -119
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
PIT42%ML +102

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.7 pts

Boston has the better record (65-56), far better scoring (6.4 vs 3.9 RPG) and the better starter in Bennett (3.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) against Chandler's 4.26 ERA, 1.38 WHIP. Market at -120 is close to the model's 58%, so no major disagreement. On the total, the model's 9.20 looks high versus the 8.0 line: Pittsburgh's 3.9 RPG against Bennett's low WHIP argues under despite PNC's 1.055 factor.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.6
Projected total9.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jake BennettBOS starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 bovada / U -132 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -143 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-119 / +102BOS / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-163)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total