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NYM 0 / PIT 9
NYMNew York Mets52%
PITPittsburgh Pirates48%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterRobert StockConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
PITHome starterBubba ChandlerConfirmed
NYM52%ML +102
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
PIT48%ML -120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.4 pts

Model has NYM at 52.4% while the market implies 56% for PIT, an 8+ point gap I side with the market on. Stock's 5.0 IP across 4 starts signals an opener/bullpen game for New York, and his 1.80 ERA is meaningless in that sample. Chandler's 4.49 ERA and 1.41 WHIP are unimpressive, but PIT's 2.9 RPG offense also caps the total below the model's 9.15.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Robert StockNYM starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betonlineag / U +125 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 draftkings / U -108 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+102 / -120NYM / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -117 / U -104
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total