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NYM 6 / PIT 4
NYMNew York Mets52%
PITPittsburgh Pirates48%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterZac ThorntonConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
PITHome starterCarmen MlodzinskiConfirmed
NYM52%ML +115
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
PIT48%ML -136

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.0 pts

Market prices PIT at 55.6% despite a 3.2 RPG offense versus NYM's 5.0 RPG and .736 OPS; that gap is worth the +121, so I side lightly with the model on NYM. Thornton's 2.88 ERA over just 34.3 IP is thin, which caps conviction. Both starters under 3.50 ERA and PIT's weak scoring argue under 8.0 despite the model's 9.14.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Zac ThorntonNYM starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betonlineag / U -134 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Carmen MlodzinskiPIT starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +139 draftkings / U -164 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%under
O 2.573%under
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+115 / -136NYM / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O +100 / U -116
32 books30 ML23 run line21 total