sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

ARI 8 / PIT 7
ARIArizona Diamondbacks51%
PITPittsburgh Pirates49%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
PITHome starterBubba ChandlerConfirmed
ARI51%ML -104
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
PIT49%ML -114

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.7 pts

Model and market perfectly aligned on moneyline (both ~51% ARI). Arizona's 6.1 RPG offense outpaces PIT's 4.0 despite worse OPS, suggesting context factors. Pfaadt/Chandler both ~4.45 ERA with moderate K rates; PNC runs neutral at 1.055. Model's 9.41 total vs market 9.0 flags slight over lean given ARI's scoring profile.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brandon PfaadtARI starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 fanatics / U +126 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +129 draftkings / U -150 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-104 / -114ARI / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -120 / U -102
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total