MLB / mlb / live
CHC 3 / PIT 2CHCChicago Cubs48%
PITPittsburgh Pirates52%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterMatthew BoydConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline52%Model 20260720_auto
PITHome starterJared JonesConfirmed
CHC48%ML -110
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
PIT52%ML -108
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Matthew BoydCHC starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +108 betrivers / U -123 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 fanduel / U -120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -108CHC / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -111
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total