MLB / mlb / live
CHC 7 / PIT 8CHCChicago Cubs54%
PITPittsburgh Pirates46%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterJameson TaillonConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
PITHome starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
CHC54%ML +116
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
PIT46%ML -139
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.3 pts
Model and market both see a coin flip (54.4% vs 54.8% CHC). Taillon's 5.38 ERA in 72 IP is concerning but PIT's offense is weaker (5.0 RPG vs CHC's 6.3). Model total 9.16 vs market 8.5 suggests weak pitching environment. Hitter park (PF 1.055) supports over lean.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jameson TaillonCHC starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 betrivers / U -103 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 fanduel / U +124 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+116 / -139CHC / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total