MLB / mlb / live
scheduledMILMilwaukee Brewers50%
PITPittsburgh Pirates50%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterBrandon SproatConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline50%Model 20260706_auto
PITHome starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
MIL50%ML -105
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
PIT50%ML -114
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Lines
Brandon SproatMIL starter / away
Projected K4.9
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 bovada / U -132 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.586%
O 3.572%
O 4.554%
O 5.537%
O 6.524%
O 7.514%
O 8.57%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / home
Projected K6.0
Best price at 6.56.5O +125 betonlineag / U -124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.583%
O 4.570%
O 5.554%
O 6.539%
O 7.526%
O 8.516%
O 9.59%
O 10.55%
O 11.53%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-105 / -114MIL / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total