MLB / mlb / live
MIL 5 / PIT 14MILMilwaukee Brewers47%
PITPittsburgh Pirates53%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterRobert GasserConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
PITHome starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
MIL47%ML +108
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
PIT53%ML -128
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Robert GasserMIL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -140 betmgm / U +125 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Paul SkenesPIT starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -130 fanduel / U +110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.555%over
O 6.540%over
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+108 / -128MIL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total