MLB / mlb / live
SEA 3 / PIT 2SEASeattle Mariners53%
PITPittsburgh Pirates47%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterGeorge KirbyConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
PITHome starterMitch KellerConfirmed
SEA53%ML -132
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
PIT47%ML +110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.3
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
George KirbySEA starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 betonlineag / U -150 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Mitch KellerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 betmgm / U -110 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-132 / +110SEA / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total