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SEA 1 / PIT 5
SEASeattle Mariners58%
PITPittsburgh Pirates42%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterBryce MillerConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
PITHome starterBubba ChandlerConfirmed
SEA58%ML -150
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
PIT42%ML +125

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.8 pts

Miller's 1.58 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in 40 IP is elite; Chandler's 4.62 ERA in 74 IP is established mediocrity. SEA offense at 1.3 RPG is catastrophically bad but the pitching comparison is enormous. Model at 58.3% vs market 59% convergence with massive SP gap justifies strong. Total under: Miller dominates, PIT offense anemic at 2.5 RPG.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bryce MillerSEA starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -104 fanduel / U -110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.516%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%over
O 9.52%over
O 10.51%over
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -136 betrivers / U +128 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-150 / +125SEA / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-131)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total