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MIA 2 / PIT 3
MIAMiami Marlins42%
PITPittsburgh Pirates58%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterLake Bachar
Model pickPIT moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterBubba Chandler
MIA42%ML -104
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
PIT58%ML -114

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.0 pts

Model likes PIT 58% vs market 54%, a 4-point gap within noise. Bachar's 2.97 ERA in 36 IP is a tiny sample; Chandler's 4.91 across 62 IP is more reliable but unimpressive. Market total 9.0 vs model 8.84 is tight. Both teams .500, nearly identical offense. No structural comparison visible—pass on side, lean under on total given pitcher park factor 1.055.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Lake BacharMIA starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 4 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%over
O 2.553%over
O 3.531%over
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betmgm / U -118 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-104 / -114MIA / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+128)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -116
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total