MLB / mlb / live
LAD 8 / PIT 6LADLos Angeles Dodgers55%
PITPittsburgh Pirates45%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterJustin Wrobleski
Model pickLAD moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterMitch Keller
LAD55%ML -179
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
PIT45%ML +150
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 betmgm / U +120 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.577%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Mitch KellerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +124 draftkings / U -150 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-179 / +150LAD / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total