MLB / mlb / live
LAD 8 / PIT 9LADLos Angeles Dodgers59%
PITPittsburgh Pirates41%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterShohei Ohtani
Model pickLAD moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterJared Jones
LAD59%ML -210
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability65%Selected moneyline pick
PIT41%ML +175
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.4 pts
Ohtani (0.74 ERA, 0.79 WHIP in 61 IP) is legitimately elite; Jones has 9.3 IP across 10 starts—severe small-sample noise. Model at 58.6% vs market 67.2% is market_disagreement_large territory. LAD's .743 OPS and 43-24 record support the away side. Total: model 9.42 vs market 8.5; Ohtani's dominance argues under despite PNC's 1.055 park factor.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-210 / +175LAD / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+107)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total