MLB / mlb / live
MIN 3 / PIT 9MINMinnesota Twins46%
PITPittsburgh Pirates54%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterZebby Matthews
Model pickPIT moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterBraxton Ashcraft
MIN46%ML +140
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
PIT54%ML -166
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.6 pts
Model predicts 9.19 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.69-run gap triggering total_far_from_market flag. Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP/K9 stats despite 'full' data_quality prevents structural assessment. Market implies PIT 59.1%, model has 53.6% — material disagreement but insufficient context to judge. Context too incomplete for actionable view.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -166MIN / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total