MLB / mlb / live
MIN 3 / PIT 9MINMinnesota Twins46%
PITPittsburgh Pirates54%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterZebby Matthews
Model pickPIT moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterBraxton Ashcraft
MIN46%ML +140
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
PIT54%ML -166
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap6.4 pts
Model predicts 9.19 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.69-run gap triggering total_far_from_market flag. Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP/K9 stats despite 'full' data_quality prevents structural assessment. Market implies PIT 59.1%, model has 53.6% — material disagreement but insufficient context to judge. Context too incomplete for actionable view.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+140 / -166MIN / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total