MLB / mlb / live
MIN 9 / PIT 10MINMinnesota Twins56%
PITPittsburgh Pirates44%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterBailey Ober
Model pickMIN moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterMitch Keller
MIN56%ML +124
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
PIT44%ML -145
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap12.7 pts
Model picks MIN at 55.7%, market implies 44.0% for away win. Keller's 6.0 IP sample is tiny; 0.0 ERA unsustainable. Ober's 4.0 IP equally small. Both pitcher lines are noise. PIT has better offense (4.7 RPG vs 3.8, .710 OPS vs .673) yet model fades them—offense_defense_mismatch flag fires correctly. Lean MIN per model but low confidence given small pitcher samples.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+124 / -145MIN / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total