MLB / mlb / live
MIN 5 / PIT 6MINMinnesota Twins59%
PITPittsburgh Pirates41%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterTaj Bradley
Model pickMIN moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterJared Jones
MIN59%ML +110
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
PIT41%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap13.1 pts
Model has MIN at 58.6% but market implies PIT 55.6%. Bradley's 18.69 K/9 in 4.1 IP is meaningless tiny sample. Model likely overweighting that noise. PIT offense (.710 OPS) vs MIN (.673 OPS) supports home side. Lean PIT, under 8.0 total.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -132MIN / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total