MLB / mlb / live
CHC 7 / PIT 2CHCChicago Cubs56%
PITPittsburgh Pirates44%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterColin Rea
Model pickCHC moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterPaul Skenes
CHC56%ML +145
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
PIT44%ML -172
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time17.1 pts
Skenes shows 0.2 IP with 67.50 ERA—clearly incomplete data despite 'full' tag. Rea has null for all season stats. Without reliable pitcher metrics, neither side nor total can be assessed. Model predicts 9.03 runs vs market 7.5, but this gap likely reflects bad input data rather than true comparison. Pass entirely.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+145 / -172CHC / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total