MLB / mlb / live
CHC 1 / PIT 12CHCChicago Cubs59%
PITPittsburgh Pirates41%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterJordan Wicks
Model pickCHC moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterMitch Keller
CHC59%ML +118
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
PIT41%ML -139
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap14.5 pts
Model favors CHC 58.6% vs market's 44.8% (implied from +119). Missing pitcher stats for both starters makes this thin—model leans on rolling offense where CHC's away xSLG short carries weight. PNC's 1.055 park factor plus model's 9.1 total vs market 8.0 suggests over, but uncertainty high without SP fundamentals.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+118 / -139CHC / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -109
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total