MLB / mlb / live
PHI 6 / PIT 0PHIPhiladelphia Phillies42%
PITPittsburgh Pirates58%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterZack Wheeler
Model pickPIT moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterPaul Skenes
PHI42%ML +116
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
PIT58%ML -138
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap2.5 pts
Paul Skenes shows 0.2 IP and 67.50 ERA (likely 1 ER in emergency appearance). Wheeler has null stats. Both pitcher profiles are unreliable. Model predicts 9.05 runs vs market 7.0—a 2-run gap flags structural uncertainty. Market implies PHI slight favorite (44.8%) vs model's PIT 58%. Pass on side and total until pitcher data resolves.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+116 / -138PHI / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total