MLB / mlb / live
COL 2 / PIT 7COLColorado Rockies36%
PITPittsburgh Pirates64%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterChase Dollander
Model pickPIT moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterMason Montgomery
COL36%ML +145
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
PIT64%ML -175
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.3 pts
Montgomery: 2 starts, 2.1 IP total, 7.71 ERA — effectively a debut. Dollander: 10 starts but null for all rate stats (data issue). Model leaning PIT 64% vs market 62% on invisible pitcher data. Top SHAP features reference pitcher stats that don't exist in a meaningful sample. Cannot form a view without reliable starter information.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+145 / -175COL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -102
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total