MLB / mlb / live
COL 2 / PIT 7COLColorado Rockies36%
PITPittsburgh Pirates64%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterChase Dollander
Model pickPIT moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterMason Montgomery
COL36%ML +145
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
PIT64%ML -175
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap3.2 pts
Montgomery: 2 starts, 2.1 IP total, 7.71 ERA — effectively a debut. Dollander: 10 starts but null for all rate stats (data issue). Model leaning PIT 64% vs market 62% on invisible pitcher data. Top SHAP features reference pitcher stats that don't exist in a meaningful sample. Cannot form a view without reliable starter information.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+145 / -175COL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -102
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total