MLB / mlb / live
PHI 11 / PIT 9PHIPhiladelphia Phillies52%
PITPittsburgh Pirates48%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterAaron Nola
Model pickPHI moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterBraxton Ashcraft
PHI52%ML +115
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
PIT48%ML -134
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap7.4 pts
Market favors PIT at 55.8% vs model's PHI slight comparison at 52.2%. Ashcraft missing all season stats (ERA/IP/WHIP null) creates data uncertainty despite 'full' quality tag. Nola's 5.4 ERA in limited IP (5.0) suggests early struggles. Model total 9.03 vs market 8.0 is notable; PNC Park runs slightly over baseline at 1.055 PF. Lean home on market strength, over on park and pitcher uncertainty.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+115 / -134PHI / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total