MLB / mlb / live
COL 10 / PIT 4COLColorado Rockies36%
PITPittsburgh Pirates64%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterJose Quintana
Model pickPIT moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterMitch Keller
COL36%ML +153
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
PIT64%ML -185
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.9 pts
Model (64.1%) and market (62.9%) align on PIT. Keller's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP across 10 starts is impossibly small-sample (0.6 IP/start); Quintana's 4.15 ERA in 4.1 IP is similarly thin. COL's .531 OPS is league-worst, supporting PIT side, but pitcher data is too noisy for strong conviction. Total near market at 8.85 vs 8.5; park factor 1.055 argues slight over but I pass given starter uncertainty.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+153 / -185COL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total