MLB / mlb / live
CIN 0 / PIT 1CINCincinnati Reds59%
PITPittsburgh Pirates41%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase Burns
Model pickCIN moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterBraxton Ashcraft
CIN59%ML +101
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
PIT41%ML -120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.9 pts
Model likes CIN at 58.6% vs market's 48%. Both pitchers lack ERA/WHIP data despite 10 starts each—genuine uncertainty. Model's 9.23 total vs market 7.5 is a massive 1.73-run gap; model likely overweighting CIN's barrel rate in a park that plays neutral-plus. Market disagreement argues caution but I'll lean CIN on better record.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+101 / -120CIN / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total