MLB / mlb / live
CIN 0 / PIT 1CINCincinnati Reds59%
PITPittsburgh Pirates41%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase Burns
Model pickCIN moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterBraxton Ashcraft
CIN59%ML +101
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
PIT41%ML -120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.6 pts
Model likes CIN at 58.6% vs market's 48%. Both pitchers lack ERA/WHIP data despite 10 starts each—genuine uncertainty. Model's 9.23 total vs market 7.5 is a massive 1.73-run gap; model likely overweighting CIN's barrel rate in a park that plays neutral-plus. Market disagreement argues caution but I'll lean CIN on better record.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+101 / -120CIN / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total