MLB / mlb / live
CIN 1 / PIT 9CINCincinnati Reds55%
PITPittsburgh Pirates45%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterBrady Singer
Model pickCIN moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterMitch Keller
CIN55%ML +114
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
PIT45%ML -135
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.3 pts
Model predicts 9.64 runs vs market 8.0; that 1.64-run gap is a red flag. Keller's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is extreme small-sample noise—unclear if this is 1 dominant start or data artifact. CIN's 6.2 RPG offense is real, but model leaning away 55-45 while market has PIT at 55% suggests structural disagreement. Prefer PIT lightly with market, and lean under given the inflated total projection.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+114 / -135CIN / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -107 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total