MLB / mlb / live
STL 4 / PIT 2STLSt. Louis Cardinals56%
PITPittsburgh Pirates44%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterDustin May
Model pickSTL moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterMason Montgomery
STL56%ML +111
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
PIT44%ML -134
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.4 pts
Both starters in extreme small samples: Montgomery 2.1 IP, May 4.0 IP. Model's moneyline (STL 55.7%) nearly matches market (STL 54.8%), but pitcher data is essentially noise. Model flags offense_defense_mismatch picking STL despite PIT's better record. Cannot responsibly lean either way on 2-4 IP of starter data.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+111 / -134STL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -111
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total